(PS10-7) Anxiety and Depression Symptoms and Certainty in Negative Future Predictions: The Role of Intolerance of Uncertainty and Perseverative Thought

Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and depression are both associated with intolerance of uncertainty (IU; Gentes & Ruscio, 2011), perseverative thought (e.g., McEvoy& Brans, 2002), and negative expectations about the future (Cabeleira, 2014; MacLeod, 1988). However, one study (Miranda & Mennin, 2007) found only depression (not GAD) symptoms were associated with increased certainty that positive events would not happen in the future, while GAD and depression symptoms were both associated with increased certainty that negative events would happen. The goal of the present study was to examine whether IU and perseverative thought (worry or rumination) account for these associations between GAD and depression symptoms and negative predictions about future events.

Five hundred and eighty college students completed the Diagnostic Inventory for Depression (Zimmerman et al., 2002) and the GAD-Q (Newman et al., 200), both administered and scored as continuous measures of symptom severity. They also completed the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (Freeston et al., 1994), the Penn State Worry Questionnaire (Meyer et al., 1990), the Reflection Rumination Questionnaire (Trapnell & Campbell, 1999), and the Future Events Task (Miranda & Mennin, 2007), which asks participants to rate whether they are likely to experience 17 future negative and 17 future positive events (yes or no), and their certainty in their responses. We examined certainty ratings on a 1 (not at all certain) to 5 (as certain as one can be) scale for predictions that negative events would happen and positive events would not happen.

GAD and depression symptoms were both associated with increased certainty that future negative events would happen (both r > .27, p < .001) and future positive events would not happen (both r > .17, p</em> < .001). All of these associations remained significant when controlling for worry and rumination (all β > .12, R² > .01, p < .001). When controlling for IU, both GAD and depression symptoms continued to be associated with certainty that future negative events would happen (both β > .16, R² > .02, p < .001), but only GAD symptoms continued to be associated with certainty that positive events would not happen (β = .22, R² = .03, p < .001).

Results were intended to extend past research by examining whether IU or perseverative thought account for associations between GAD and depression symptoms and predictions about future events. However, our pattern of results unexpectedly differed from past research, possibly due to our use of dimensional (vs. dichotomous) measures of certainty. If replicated, these results may suggest certainty in negative future predictions as a shared feature of GAD and depression that is not entirely attributable to other shared features.